Five into three won’t go in Connacht Gold SFC final round​

​If you had tried to conjure up the possible scenarios to make the final round of group games in this year’s intriguing Connacht Gold Leitrim Senior Championship that bit more dramatic, I don’t think you’d have done any better than what we’re faced with next Saturday evening as five teams battle it out to make the quarter finals and avoid the relegation final.

Five teams - Glencar Manorhamilton, St Mary’s Kiltoghert, Fenagh St Caillins, Allen Gaels & Aughawillan - are battling it out to avoid finding themselves in the bottom two and crucially only Allen Gaels and Aughawillan face off against each other in round 4 of this year’s championship.

The final day pairings are such that the four teams on two points could all lose and then it will come down to scoring differences. Equally, they might all win and scoring difference again decides the issue, a complicated one as not all of the teams have faced off against each other in the four games.

To add to the intrigue, defending champions Leitrim Gaels, Mohill and Ballinamore Sean O’Heslins all have something to play for - apart from derbies for the Gaels and O’Heslins, a good result could see the winners avoid the quarter finals and, with quite a few teams suffering from injuries, an extra week to recover could be priceless.

Social media will be closely followed on Saturday evening as a team’s fate, as much as it is in their own hands, can also be affected by events elsewhere - Glencar Manorhamilton have the best scoring difference but a heavy loss in Mohill could see their rivals leapfrog them.

Even though the vast majority are counting out Aughawillan thanks to their debilitating score difference of minus 47, a big win and heavy losses for their rivals could swing the balance. In truth, the Drumshanbo outfit looked best placed to reach the quarter finals of the four teams level on four points but stranger things have happened and we’ve seen quite a few twists already this year.

We’re not going to worry about scoring differences or what might happened in one venue or another, rather we’re going to take a quick look at the four games and give our verdict - after that, it is the lap of the Gods!

Allen Gaels v Aughawillan: Both these teams are in the relegation spots and depending on results elsewhere, a draw might even be enough for the Gaels but they’ll want to go through the front door and they’ve had this game in their sights since the draw was made.

They’ve lost Radek Oberwan and Kieran Kilcline but their young guns have shown enough to suggest that they could grow into a force in the years to come. Conor Flood is solid in goal and they have real scoring options upfront but apart from that killer finish against Fenagh, they have been in good positions but just didn’t have the nous to close the game out.

Aughawillan are in a real pickle, they’ve never had the biggest of picks and they made that into a strength but the absence of Pearce Dolan, Fergal McTague, Gary Plunkett, Ciaran Gilheany and Mark Plunkett has left them with a mountain to climb. Tom and Jamie Plunkett have taken a leap forward in this campaign but they are stretched thin in most sectors.

I expect the Gaels to take the verdict - they will want a big victory to be sure and they may just do that.

Fenagh St Caillins v Ballinamore Sean O’Heslins: A genuinely intriguing contest - no need for extra hype here!

Both outfits have potent forward lines but have been a tad vulnerable in defence and it could just come down to whoever best restricts the scoring impact of the opposition.

Ballinamore, despite missing quite a few players for a lot of the campaign, are quietly going about their business and the more game-time they get into Tom Prior and Paul Honeyman can only benefit them. A win and a slip up for Mohill and Leitrim Gaels could see them into the semi-finals and that is a prize they will want.

Fenagh haven’t had much luck in this campaign, in truth, they weren’t far away from an unbeaten campaign but they are under immense pressure and are probably down to the bare bones compared to their rivals in terms of playing resources.

The smart money says Ballinamore and it is hard to disagree with that, in fact that’s what I expect but I can’t escape the nagging feeling that Fenagh have a big kick in them, too close to call!

Mohill v Glencar Manorhamilton: Mohill are odds on favourites to qualify for the semi-finals. They have the better scoring difference and they’re not known for letting sentiment get in the way of doing what they need to do against a Glencar Manor team in a precarious position.

Manor are fourth in the table but are on the road against a team who seem to have regained their best form. Barry McNulty moved up a level against Allen Gaels but this is another big step up and Mohill are a team who know how to negate the strengths of a rival.

My fear for Mohill is that they are over-reliant on Keith Beirne for the bulk of their scores and if Manor can restrict his impact, Mohill could find themselves dragged into a battle and, as Ballinamore showed in round 2, that could go either way.

But Mohill look in ominous form - they are moving well, their big players are hitting form and in Conor Quinn, Keith Keegan and Domhnaill Flynn, they have players who can restrict the impact of Barry McNulty. Mohill to prevail, although it may be closer than many expect.

St Mary’s Kiltoghert v Leitrim Gaels: Form guide suggests Leitrim Gaels will maintain their 100% record in Pairc Naomh Mhuire but if we know one thing about games between these neighbours, it is that logic can often go out the window and it is who keeps their cool best that will emerge triumphant.

Both go into this game with injury worries - Garvan Jones went off against Fenagh while his brother Ryan looked restricted in his movement. For St Mary’s, Paul Keaney, Ben Guckian and Mark Diffley were all limping badly after their loss to Ballinamore and without them, their hopes look very slim.

St Mary’s are somewhat unfortunate after narrow losses to Mohill and Ballinamore but they have been lacking a clinical edge and that could come back to haunt them against a Gaels team who haven’t hit the heights of last year but have consistently found a way to win.

The Gaels won’t want to surrender a semi-final place and the pressure is very much on St Mary’s to avoid the relegation final for a second year in a row. I think there is a kick in St Mary’s yet, they haven’t been far off but they need to take their chances - my head says Leitrim Gaels, not sure what my gut is telling me to be honest!