Win or bust for Leitrim as only victory over Laois will keep promotion hopes alive

You can have all the permutations, what ifs and scenarios you want but for Leitrim footballers, there is one simple and very stark fact that stands out next Sunday - unless they defeat Laois in the penultimate round of the Allianz NFL Division 4 campaign, then their hopes of promotion for 2023 are over.

That's a blunt statement to have to make because sports people always believe there is hope, that they can find a way against impossible odds and that certainly applies for Andy Moran's team but given the situation Leitrim find themselves in with games against Laois and Sligo to come, the clash with Laois in Avant Money Pairc Sean Mac Diarmada next Sunday (2pm throw-in) has the feel of a must win championship encounter!

You only had to see the reaction of Leitrim supporters after the traumatic loss to Wicklow or see the ashen faces of Leitrim players and management to know how much the loss in Aughrim has hurt the Green & Gold chances for the final two games against Laois and Sligo were always regarded as the two most difficult games in the Division and the two games likely to decide Leitrim's fate for 2023.

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Yet Leitrim are not without hope, even if some believe writing those words is more a sign of hopeless optimism rather than genuine cause for belief but a Leitrim performance that delivers a win next Sunday would reignite the promotion push and leave Leitrim in with a wonderful chance of making the top two.

At the moment, Leitrim's hopes rest solely on a win for the home team next Sunday in Pairc Sean - a draw would leave Leitrim two points behind Laois and then you'd have to see what Sligo and Wicklow do in their games. A Sligo victory away to Carlow would leave them three points clear while a Wicklow win over Wexford would mean the Garden county are two points clear with the advantage of the head to head result.

Wicklow travel to  Chadwicks Wexford Park next Saturday - and we know how difficult that is  - with a trip to Dungarvan for their final round encounter so two wins would leave them on 11 points and simply not catchable so Leitrim need Oisin McConville's men to drop points.

Where Leitrim have hope is that they currently possess the best scoring difference between Sligo, Leitrim and Laois, albeit Sligo would expect to seriously improve their scoring difference against Carlow next Saturday and if three teams are level on ten points, the remarkable scoring tallies for Andy Moran's team could be enough to sneak a promotion place.

A draw for Laois would leave the O'Moore county needing a win over London in Ruislip in the last round but you cannot escape the simple fact that only a Leitrim victory keeps Andy Moran's side alive in the race for promotion.

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THE LAST POINT

Now, that is a tricky thing - does that increase the pressure on Leitrim going into Sunday's encounter or does it release them from their burdens? We're all well familiar with the trait of Leitrim teams performing best when nothing is expected of them so where does this situation fall? if hope is truly gone, does that free the Leitrim players mentally or does the absolute necessity of having to win add to the pressure on the Green & Gold?

Those are big questions and difficult to answer for even in the defeats in Wexford and Wicklow, Leitrim had the chances to win both games, even if you have to grudgingly admit that the better team won on both days. And that maybe offers a sort of strange glimmer of hope that even when not playing as well as they can, Andy Moran's troops put themselves into a position where they could win.

Laois' only defeat of the campaign came at the hands of Wicklow but they haven't been as convincing as many  thought they would be. They scrapped by Carlow in Netwatch Cullen Park where two late red cards for Evan O'Carroll and Brian Byrne meant that the duo missed the loss to Wicklow.

In that game, Laois were in command but Wicklow hit six unanswered points to take control of the game before a decisive late goal gave Wicklow a 2-12 to 2-10 victory.

What that us is hard to know as the O'Moore county bounced back with a fairly comfortable victory over bottom of the table Waterford the last day out. Their strength is in attack where Paul Kingston, Evan O'Carroll and Eoin Lowry, who hit 2-6 to make the GAA.ie Team of the Week, will take some stopping.

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Laois' attack is not as prolific as that of Leitrim but the midlanders will take inspiration from how Wicklow minimised the impact of Keith Beirne the last day out. The Mohill man was still Leitrim's top scorer but the over-reliance on him for scores hit Leitrim hard and it was the first game where you felt that Ryan O'Rourke was missed.

To be fair, injuries have been unkind to Andy Moran this year with Jordan Reynolds & O'Rourke missing, increasing the burden still further on Beirne. The absence of Tom Prior from the match day squad the last day out hurt while Leitrim have got to be tighter in defence with frees killing them against both Wexford and Wicklow in the two losses so far.

On current form, you have to give the nod to Laois - they have just as much to play for as Leitrim and although they haven't blown people away, they've been getting results for the most part. The swirling discontent from fans around the Green & Gold right now certainly doesn't help but it is not beyond the realms of possibility for Leitrim to win but for that to happen, they've got to be more consistent and more clinical. Do that and Leitrim have a chance!